Model v1.0.0 · Reviewed 1 October 2026

Methodology

How the Decision Lab computes every number. All values are in euros at full precision; rounding to two decimals of €m happens only on screen.

Opening position

Opening NAV €100m = listed equities €45m + bonds €25m + cash €12m + existing private assets €18m. An uncalled commitment C (€0–12m, step €1m, default €8m) is a memo amount and is never subtracted from NAV.

Event sequence

Transfer. x (€0–10m, step €0.5m, default €4m) moves from cash into the new project at par. NAV is unchanged.
Scenario. Shocks apply to equities, bonds, existing private assets and the new project. Cash stays at 12 − x.
Capital call. All of C becomes due. A paid call becomes additional existing private assets at par, after the shocks, with no return applied.

Formulas (in €m)

E = 45 × (1 + rE)      B = 25 × (1 + rB)
P = 18 × (1 + rP)      N = x × (1 + rN)
cash = 12 − x
preCallNAV = E + B + P + N + cash
gap = max(0, C − cash)

If gap = 0:   cash' = cash − C;  P' = P + C;  NAV' = preCallNAV
If gap > 0 and bond sales allowed:
   gross = gap / (1 − d);  proceeds = gap
   require gross ≤ B, else unfunded
   B' = B − gross;  cash' = 0;  P' = P + C
   loss = gross − gap;  NAV' = preCallNAV − loss
Otherwise: "Call not funded under this policy"
   (no closing portfolio; pre-call values only)

privateShare = (P + N) / NAV at the same stage

Positive scenario pre-call NAV = 105.43 + 0.10x; stress = 83.15 − 0.35x. The comparison "Retain cash" is the same calculation with x = 0 and identical C, scenario and funding policy.

Scenario assumptions

Assumption	Positive market	Market stress
Listed equities return	+8%	-25%
Bonds return	+3%	-8%
Existing private assets (economic value)	+6%	-20%
New project (economic value)	+10%	-35%
Cash return	0%	0%
Bond sale discount to fair value	0%	2%

Simplifications and what this is not

Two synthetic, single-period scenarios. They are not forecasts and carry no probabilities.
No estimate of optimal allocation, risk-adjusted return, diversification benefit, correlation or any forecast.
No borrowing, equity sales, credit lines, partial call payments, default penalties, fees or taxes.
Synthetic private-asset shocks represent economic-value assumptions. They are not assertions about how quickly reported appraisals would reflect them.
An unfunded call means insufficient cash under the chosen policy, not insolvency.
A single decision on a toy portfolio is not a full institutional total portfolio approach, which also concerns objectives, governance and culture.

Independent references

Inclusion of a source is not an endorsement by or of its author, and this site has no affiliation with any of them.

Review date: 1 October 2026. Model version 1.0.0.